Has malaria prevalence in Kenya declined over the last 10 years?
How true is the claim that malaria prevalence in Kenya has fallen to 4.6 million infections per year over the past decade?
On April 25, 2020, during celebrations to mark World Malaria day, President Uhuru Kenyatta said Kenya is stepping up efforts to reduce malaria prevalence.
He made a claim that the country has significantly lowered malaria prevalence from 6 million infections to 4.6 million over the last 10 years, and he attributed the progress to support and cooperation between the government, development partners, and health providers.
President Kenyatta, who is also the chairperson of the African Leaders Malaria Alliance (ALMA), said malaria has ravaged communities for decades and is considered to be largely an African problem with Sub-Saharan Africa accounting for 93 per cent of global malaria cases.
During the address, the president called on African heads of state and other stakeholders to come together to mobilize resources and proactively implement programs with the ultimate goal of wiping out the disease by the year 2030.
So, the question is, has malaria prevalence in Kenya reduced from 6 million in 2009 to 4.6 million in 2020?
PesaCheck has looked into the claim and finds the following;
The President’s Malaria Initiative (PMI), a US government initiative to control and eliminate malaria, reports that malaria transmission and infection risk in Kenya are determined largely by altitude, rainfall patterns, and temperature, which leads to considerable variation in malaria prevalence by season and across geographic regions.
According to PMI, approximately 70 percent of Kenya’s population is at risk for malaria, with 14 million people in endemic areas, and another 17 million in areas likely to experience epidemic and seasonal malaria.
In Kenya, the highest number of malaria deaths occurs in children under the age of five. Data from the 2016 Global Burden of Disease Collaborative Network shows that approximately 63.5% of malaria deaths in the country occurred in under-fives.
According to the World Malaria Report released by the WHO in December 2019, there were 228 million cases of malaria in 2018 compared to 231 million in 2017. The estimated number of malaria deaths stood at 405 000 in 2018, compared to 416 000 deaths in 2017.
Claim 1: Malaria prevalence was at 6 million infections in 2010?
Verdict: Plausible
According to WHO data, in 2010 there were 6,071,583 reported cases of malaria in Kenya that were presumed and those confirmed by testing were 898,531, which leads to an estimate of 6.8 million.
The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics in its 2014 Economic Survey shows that reported cases of malaria in 2010 were 11,371,884 and 9,833,701 in 2009. The data does not state how the cases were confirmed.
The president’s claim that Kenya’s prevalence in terms of the number of infections is, however, supported by the WHO data, which has an estimate of 6 million as the number of confirmed cases.
The data above does not fully support the claim by President Uhuru Kenyatta that the malaria infection in Kenya was 6 million, given the ranges in estimates. However, the World Health Organization’s estimate does indicate that there were just over six million likely cases of malaria in 2010, making the president’s claim PLAUSIBLE.
Claim 2: Malaria prevalence is at 4.6 million infections currently
Verdict: False
According to data from the Kenya Bureau of Statistics, as outlined in the Economic Survey 2019, health facilities around the country reported an increase in the incidence of malaria cases from 7,958,213 in 2017 to 10,777,679 in 2018.
The 2019 Kenya Malaria Operational Plan shows that the total cases of malaria in 2017 stood at 7,964,281. The 2017 WHO data and Kenya Malaria Operational Plan data all put estimates at around 9 million.
The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics in its 2019 Economic Survey shows that reported cases of malaria in 2018 were at 10,777,679 and at 7,958,213 for 2017.
The Global Health Observatory Data Repository shows the incidence rate of cases per 1000 population of malaria in Kenya increased between 2010 and 2014; it rose from 68 in 2010 to 85 in 2014. However, from 2014 to 2017, the rate of change slowed dramatically, reducing from 85 in 2014 to 70 in 2017.
Meanwhile, the World Malaria Report 2019 shows that Kenya had 9,950,781 confirmed cases of malaria in 2018.
Taking all the provided data, none supports the claim by President Kenyatta that malaria prevalence has reached a low of 4.6 million. Data available in the public domain shows that Kenya has not significantly lowered malaria prevalence but rather that there has been an increase or stagnation in prevalence rates. Though the president didn’t state the source of his information used to back his claims, the data available does not support a decline in malaria cases.
In the past 10 years, Kenya has made strides in preventing and controlling malaria, issuing insecticide-treated bed nets, spraying people’s homes with insecticides, and ensuring that there is widespread diagnostic testing. These efforts have resulted in a significant drop in transmission rates, but progress has not been consistent. Parts of Kenya, especially the counties in the western region and coastal areas, are still plagued by serious seasonal cases of malaria.
It is important to note that the data available does not cover 2019 estimates for malarial infections. It may be that this information is on record and has yet to be published in the public arena but is available to government officers and holders of public positions, including the president.
Given this limitation, Pesacheck has looked into the claim made by President Uhuru Kenyatta that malaria prevalence in Kenya has fallen to 4.6 million and is unable to determine the data on which his statement is based; in terms of decline in prevalence the provided data doesn’t show a progressive and consistent decline of malaria over the last decade, so the claim is therefore FALSE.
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This report was written by Sylvia Makinia PesaCheck Researcher and Writer. It was edited by PesaCheck Deputy Editor Rose Lukalo, and was approved for publication by PesaCheck Managing Editor Eric Mugendi.
The infographics are by Sakina Salem, a Tanzanian graphic designer, visual artist and digital content producer.
PesaCheck, co-founded by Catherine Gicheru and Justin Arenstein, is East Africa’s first public finance fact-checking initiative. It seeks to help the public separate fact from fiction in public pronouncements about the numbers that shape our world, with a special emphasis on pronouncements about public finances that shape government’s delivery of public services linked to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), such as healthcare, rural development and access to water/sanitation. PesaCheck also tests the accuracy of media reportage.
To find out more about the project, visit pesacheck.org.
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